MD vs DO Acceptance Rates: Quantifying Your Odds with Real Numbers

The most persistent myth in premed culture is that DO schools are "safety schools." The data show that this cliché is both misleading and numerically sloppy.

(See also: Clinical Hours vs Acceptance for insights on how clinical experience impacts acceptance rates.)

1. The Core Numbers: MD vs DO at a Glance

Let’s start with what applicants care about most: probabilities.

(Related: Impact of Multiple MCAT Attempts on Acceptance Probabilities for understanding how retakes can affect your chances.)

Using the most recent comprehensive data available from AAMC (for MD) and AACOMAS/NRMP/COCA reports (for DO), we can sketch the landscape.

MD (Allopathic) Schools – Big Picture

In a typical recent cycle (e.g., 2023–2024):

• Total MD applicants (AMCAS): ~52,000–55,000
• Total MD matriculants: ~22,000–23,000
• Overall MD acceptance rate (applicant-level): ~40–43%

This “overall” rate means: of all applicants who submitted at least one MD primary application, about 4 in 10 ended up with at least one MD acceptance.

School-level acceptance rates are much lower because each school gets thousands of applications for 100–250 seats. But from the applicant’s perspective, ~40% is the right order of magnitude.

DO (Osteopathic) Schools – Big Picture

For DO schools (AACOMAS):

• Total DO applicants: ~25,000–30,000
• Total DO matriculants: ~8,000–9,000
• Overall DO acceptance rate (applicant-level): ~30–36%

Interpretation: roughly 1 in 3 DO applicants end up matriculating at a DO program.

Already, the myth cracks. The “easier backdoor” narrative suggests DO acceptance rates should be dramatically higher. Instead, they are often similar to MD rates and sometimes lower if you compare certain GPA/MCAT bands.

The key nuance: the applicant pools are different. The DO pool skews slightly lower in MCAT and GPA; MD skews higher. So the probabilities for you personally depend strongly on where your stats fall relative to each pool.

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2. GPA and MCAT: How Your Numbers Shift MD vs DO Odds

The data show a consistent pattern: MD matriculants have higher average metrics than DO matriculants, but the distributions overlap more than most premeds realize.

Average Academic Metrics: MD vs DO

Recent approximate matriculant averages:

MD matriculants (U.S. allopathic)

• Mean GPA: ~3.74–3.76
• Mean science GPA: ~3.68–3.70
• Mean MCAT: ~511–512 (about 83rd–85th percentile)

DO matriculants (U.S. osteopathic)

• Mean GPA: ~3.55–3.60
• Mean science GPA: ~3.45–3.50
• Mean MCAT: ~504–506 (about 62nd–66th percentile)

So on average, MD students have roughly:

• ~0.15–0.20 higher overall GPA
• ~6–7 points higher MCAT

But averages conceal the actual decision boundaries. What matters is how acceptance probabilities shift across score ranges.

Acceptance Rates by MCAT Band (Conceptual View)

AAMC publishes “MCAT and GPA Grid” tables each year. While the exact values vary, the pattern is stable. Let us construct a simplified, representative layout of MD applicant-level acceptance by MCAT band, using recent grids as reference:

Approximate MD acceptance rate by MCAT (for applicants with GPAs around 3.4–3.7):

• MCAT 498–500: ~10–15% acceptance
• MCAT 501–503: ~20–25%
• MCAT 504–506: ~30–35%
• MCAT 507–509: ~45–50%
• MCAT 510–512: ~60–65%
• MCAT 513–515: ~70–75%
• MCAT ≥ 516: ~80–85%

Now contrast this with typical DO acceptance patterns using COCA/AACOM profiles and aggregated applicant reports (note: the official granularity is lower, but the trend is clear):

Approximate DO acceptance rate by MCAT (for applicants with GPAs around 3.2–3.6):

• MCAT 495–497: ~15–20%
• MCAT 498–500: ~25–30%
• MCAT 501–503: ~35–40%
• MCAT 504–506: ~45–55%
• MCAT 507–509: ~60–70%
• MCAT 510–512: ~70–80%
• MCAT ≥ 513: ~80–85%

Two observations are immediately obvious:

1. At higher MCAT scores (510+), the acceptance rates for MD and DO are both high.
   Statistically, a 514/3.7 applicant who applies smartly to both pathways will almost certainly land at least one acceptance (MD or DO).

2. At lower MCAT scores (498–504 range), DO schools tend to offer higher acceptance probabilities than MD.
   In numerical terms, the “gap” might be 10–15 percentage points in this band.

The GPA dimension shows similar patterns. Bump GPA from 3.3 to 3.6, and your odds at both MD and DO increase sharply, but the slope is steeper in MD because their mid-range pool is extremely crowded.

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3. Combined Odds: What Happens When You Apply to Both?

The most useful calculation for a data-minded applicant is not “MD vs DO?” but “MD + DO combined odds given my stats and school list.”

Let’s work through a quantitative approach.

Step 1: Estimate Individual Pathway Probabilities

Assume a hypothetical applicant:

• GPA: 3.55
• Science GPA: 3.50
• MCAT: 508
• Well-rounded clinically, no major red flags
• Applies broadly: 20 MD programs and 10 DO programs, all reasonably target/fit

From AAMC grids and historic trends:

• For a 3.5–3.6 GPA and 507–509 MCAT, MD acceptance probability (at least one MD) might be around 45–50%, depending on school selection and state residency.
• For DO, using program profiles and scores, a 508/3.55 might have a 60–70% chance of at least one DO acceptance.

Use midpoints for modeling:

• P(MD acceptance) ≈ 0.47
• P(DO acceptance) ≈ 0.65

Assume the MD and DO outcomes are not perfectly correlated. They are related (same applicant quality), but different committees, missions, and state preferences introduce noise. A simplifying assumption for first-pass estimation is that the events are statistically independent. That is not literally true, but it gives a useful ballpark.

Step 2: Compute Combined Probability

The probability of at least one acceptance (MD or DO) is:

[ P(\text{Any Acceptance}) = 1 - P(\text{No MD} \cap \text{No DO}) ]

Assuming independence:

[ P(\text{No MD}) = 1 - 0.47 = 0.53 \ P(\text{No DO}) = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35 ]

[ P(\text{No MD and No DO}) \approx 0.53 \times 0.35 = 0.1855 ]

[ P(\text{Any Acceptance}) \approx 1 - 0.1855 = 0.8145 ]

So this applicant’s approximate probability of some medical school acceptance jumps to ~81% when applying to both MD and DO.

Contrast that with MD-only:

• MD-only chance: ~47%
• MD+DO chance: ~81%

The data show a 34 percentage-point increase in success probability by including DO schools, for a mid-range applicant.

Step 3: How This Changes Across Stat Profiles

High-stat applicant example

• GPA: 3.85
• MCAT: 517

Estimated:

• P(MD acceptance) ≈ 0.85–0.90
• P(DO acceptance) ≈ 0.90–0.95 (if they actually apply)

Use:

• P(MD) = 0.88
• P(DO) = 0.93

Combined:

[ P(\text{No MD}) = 0.12, \quad P(\text{No DO}) = 0.07 ]

[ P(\text{No MD and No DO}) \approx 0.12 \times 0.07 = 0.0084 ]

[ P(\text{Any Acceptance}) \approx 0.9916 ]

So their odds of some acceptance (MD or DO) are ~99%. However, their incremental gain from adding DO is smaller because MD odds were already very high.

Lower-mid applicant example

• GPA: 3.35
• MCAT: 502

Estimated:

• P(MD acceptance) ≈ 0.10–0.15
• P(DO acceptance) ≈ 0.40–0.45

Use:

• P(MD) = 0.13
• P(DO) = 0.42

Combined:

[ P(\text{No MD}) = 0.87, \quad P(\text{No DO}) = 0.58 ]

[ P(\text{No MD and No DO}) \approx 0.87 \times 0.58 = 0.5046 ]

[ P(\text{Any Acceptance}) \approx 0.4954 ]

Here, MD-only gives ~13% odds. MD+DO raises this to ~50%. Statistically, that is the difference between “very unlikely” and “coin flip.”

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4. State Schools, Residency, and Selectivity: Hidden Multipliers

Acceptance rates are not only a function of GPA and MCAT. Institutional behavior introduces sharp discontinuities in the probabilities.

Public MD Schools and In-State Bias

Many state MD schools fill 70–90% of their seats with in-state applicants. Data examples (approximate, not exact for every school):

• School A:

  • In-state acceptance (per applicant): ~35–40%
  • Out-of-state: ~5–7%

• School B:

  • In-state: ~25–30%
  • Out-of-state: ~2–4%

If you are in-state and align with mission (e.g., rural, primary care, underserved focus), your MD odds at that one school may be dramatically higher than generic national averages suggest.

For DO programs, the in-state vs out-of-state differential tends to be smaller but still present. Many DO schools are private and regionally flexible, but they still show regional preferences.

“Prestige” MD Schools vs Community-Focused DO Schools

If you dump 15 top-20 MD schools on your list with a 3.6/510, your effective MD acceptance probability is far below the 60–65% grid-based estimate. Why? Because the grid averages include:

• Applicants who aim realistically (mid-tier, state schools, mission fit)
• Applicants who aim unrealistically (only ultra-competitive programs)

To keep your personal probability close to the grid number, your school list must distribute across:

• “Reach” schools: where your metrics are below or at the lower end of matriculant averages
• “Target” schools: where your numbers match or slightly exceed matriculant averages
• “Safety” schools: where your stats are clearly above typical ranges, and your profile fits well

For DO, the same logic applies, but the entire curve is shifted slightly downward in MCAT/GPA.

School-Level Acceptance Rates vs Applicant-Level Odds

One common mistake: applicants look at a school with a 3–5% acceptance rate and assume “I have a 3–5% chance.” That is not correct.

School-level rate = (seats) / (total applications). A school that receives 10,000 applications for 150 seats has a 1.5% seat-per-application ratio, but those “applications” include:

• Applicants submitting dozens of secondaries
• Weak-fit applicants
• Auto-screened candidates far below cutoffs

Applicant-level odds are conditional on your stats, your mission fit, your interview performance, and your competition. For an in-state 3.9/518, that same school might represent a 40–60% personal probability.

Data-driven strategy means:

• Use published class profiles (GPA, MCAT distributions)
• Match yourself within ±2 MCAT points and ±0.1–0.15 GPA
• Adjust upward if you are in-state and aligned mission-wise; downward if out-of-state at a state-heavy institution

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5. Residency Outcomes: Do MD vs DO Acceptance Rates Matter Long-Term?

Some premeds choose MD over DO solely because of residency matching fears. The numbers there are also more nuanced than the myths.

Match Rates by Degree Type

Using recent NRMP Main Residency Match data:

• U.S. MD seniors match rate: ~92–94%
• U.S. DO seniors match rate: ~88–91%

The gap exists, but it is narrow. Both groups overwhelmingly match.

The main differences emerge in:

• Rate of matching into the most competitive specialties (Dermatology, Plastics, Neurosurgery, ENT)
• Rate of matching into certain academic/university-based programs vs community programs

If one translates this back to admissions decisions: the incremental value of MD vs DO acceptance, in statistical terms, is strongest if your long-term target is a hyper-competitive specialty where every marginal advantage matters.

For primary care, hospitalist, many internal medicine subspecialties, EM, anesthesia, etc., both pathways are viable, and the acceptance-rate differential at the admissions stage often dwarfs the small later difference.

Quantitatively:

• If your chance of MD acceptance is ~20% and DO acceptance ~60%, yet your chance of eventually matching into internal medicine from either degree is >90%, then the rational, numbers-based move for most applicants is to maximize the initial acceptance probability.

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6. Strategic Takeaways by Stat Bracket

To ground everything in practical numbers, segment applicants into broad bands and describe what the data usually support.

Tier 1: 3.8+ GPA / 516+ MCAT

• MD odds: Very high, often >80% with a well-constructed list
• DO odds: Extremely high if applied
• Strategy:
  • MD-focused application, DO optional as insurance
  • MD-only is statistically reasonable if school list is not top-heavy

Tier 2: 3.6–3.8 GPA / 510–515 MCAT

• MD odds: Moderate to high (50–75%) depending on list and state
• DO odds: High (70–85%)
• Strategy:
  • MD + select DO schools yields combined acceptance probability near 90–95%
  • MD-only can be done, but data favor including at least a few DOs unless you have particular reasons not to

Tier 3: 3.4–3.6 GPA / 505–509 MCAT

• MD odds: Low to moderate (20–45%)
• DO odds: Moderate to high (50–70%)
• Strategy:
  • MD + DO strongly recommended; combined probability often ~70–85%
  • If you insist on MD-only, consider a structured plan to improve stats (retake MCAT, post-bacc, SMP)

Tier 4: 3.2–3.4 GPA / 500–504 MCAT

• MD odds: Low (5–20%)
• DO odds: Moderate (~35–55%) depending on other strengths
• Strategy:
  • DO-focused with selective MD apps at sympathetic schools (upward grade trend, strong narrative)
  • Statistically rational to apply DO heavily or improve metrics before a major MD push

Tier 5: <3.2 GPA / <500 MCAT

• MD odds: Very low (<5%) except with strong grade repair, SMP, or special circumstances
• DO odds: Low to modest (10–30%) depending on DO range, grade trends, non-cognitive strengths
• Strategy:
  • Data support a “repair then apply” model: post-bacc or SMP, and MCAT retake
  • DO is still possible, but underlying distributions indicate that strengthening metrics will dramatically shift the probability curve

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7. How to Build a Data-Driven School List

The acceptance rate you personally face is not a fixed constant. It is a function of:

1. Your stats (GPA, sGPA, MCAT)
2. Your state residency
3. The composition of your school list
4. Quality of your application (ECs, letters, essays, interview performance)

A numerically sound school list design process:

1. Classify your stats.
   Compare your GPA/MCAT directly to MD and DO matriculant averages.

2. Define target odds.

   • If you want >80% chance of some acceptance, you likely need MD+DO unless your stats are very high.

3. Allocate across tiers. Example for a Tier 2 applicant (3.65/512):

   • 5–6 reach MD programs
   • 12–15 target MD programs
   • 4–6 DO programs that fit your preferences

4. Cross-check mission fit and geography.
   Scrutinize schools that historically favor your state or your type of experience (rural, underserved, research, etc.).

5. Recalculate combined probability.
   Use AAMC grid-based probabilities as anchors, then adjust qualitatively based on list composition.

The underlying goal: transform vague anxiety into quantified risk.

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FAQ (Exactly 3 Questions)

1. Are DO schools truly “easier” to get into than MD schools?
The data show that DO schools on average matriculate applicants with slightly lower GPA and MCAT scores. However, the overall DO applicant acceptance rate (around 30–36%) is not massively higher than the MD applicant acceptance rate (around 40–43%). DO schools are not “easy”; they are simply calibrated to a slightly lower statistical band. For applicants in the 500–506 MCAT and 3.3–3.6 GPA range, DO schools usually offer distinctly better odds than MD schools, but they still reject a substantial fraction of their pool.

2. If I am competitive for MD, should I still apply DO?
From a pure probability standpoint, if your MD acceptance odds are below ~80%, adding DO schools meaningfully increases your chance of some medical school acceptance. For example, a 3.6/508 applicant might have ~45–50% MD odds, ~60–70% DO odds, and ~80%+ combined odds when applying to both. Whether you choose to add DO depends on your preferences about training environment, perceived stigma, and specialty goals, but the math almost always shows a clear numerical benefit.

3. How many MD and DO schools should I apply to for the best odds?
For most applicants with mid-range stats, a data-supported pattern is roughly 20–25 total schools, with a mix tailored to your profile. For example, a 3.55/508 candidate might target 15–18 MD schools and 5–8 DO schools. Very high-stat candidates (3.8+/516+) can often apply to fewer schools (12–18 MD, 0–4 DO) and still retain high overall acceptance probabilities. Very low-stat applicants should either increase the number of DO schools substantially or pause to improve metrics, because beyond a certain point, adding more applications without a stat shift yields diminishing returns.

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Key points:

1. MD and DO acceptance rates are more similar than the stereotypes imply; the biggest differences appear in specific GPA/MCAT bands, not in absolute “easy vs hard” labels.
2. For most mid-range applicants, applying to both MD and DO programs significantly increases the probability of some acceptance, often from ~30–50% to ~70–85% or higher.
3. A rigorous, data-driven school list—aligned with your stats, state residency, and goals—does more for your odds than any single myth about MD vs DO competitiveness.